Have you read
"The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-first Century" (Thomas P.M. Barnett)
If not stop right now and order it. While you are waiting for it to arrive read the interviews at Hugh Hewitt's. He is interviewing Dr Barnett every tuesday. Audio and transcripts are posted.
This book will be noted as the most influential of the Long War.
Dr Barnett clearly lays out the factors that allow for the growth of terrorist like Al Queda and what we can to do win.